USA · Mexico · Canada

World Cup
2026

10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. 5-factor prediction model. Every match predicted.

48Teams
12Groups
104Matches
1Champion
Predictions generated Form: 48/48 (100%) Metrics: 48/48 (100%) H2H: 15 pairsRefreshes hourly

Tournament Format

  • ›48 teams from 6 confederations
  • ›12 groups of 4 teams each
  • ›104 total matches across 3 countries
  • ›Top 2 per group advance automatically
  • ›8 best 3rd-place teams also advance
  • ›32 teams reach the knockout rounds

FIFA Rankings - April 2026

Top 3 separated by <3 ELO points - historically close

1France flagFrance
1877
2Spain flagSpain
1876
3England flagEngland
1826
4Argentina flagArgentina
1875
5Portugal flagPortugal
1764
6Brazil flagBrazil
1761
7Netherlands flagNetherlands
1758
8Morocco flagMorocco
1757
9Belgium flagBelgium
1735
10Germany flagGermany
1730

Methodology

Monte Carlo Simulation

10,000 tournament runs to produce stable probability distributions for each outcome.

ELO Win Probability

P(win) = 1 / (1 + 10^((ELO₂ − ELO₁) / 600))

5-Factor Model

  • 1ELO rating differential (40%)
  • 2Recent form - last 10 matches (20%)
  • 3xG & defensive metrics (20%)
  • 4Home advantage boost (10%)
  • 5Head-to-head history (10%)

Legend

Winner

Advances as group winner

Runner Up

Advances as runner-up

3rd Place

May advance (best 3rd)

4th Place

Eliminated

Percentages show probability across 10,000 simulated tournaments. Bars represent relative probability within each group.